How it works

One question: what's the chance your team reaches the next round? Here's the answer in plain English — no maths degree required.

1

We start with the real results

Games that have already been played are locked in with their real scores. We never change what actually happened on the pitch.

2

We play out the games that are left — thousands of times

For every match still to come, we imagine a result. Stronger teams win more often, but upsets happen — just like real football. We do this for the whole rest of the tournament, over and over.

3

We see who qualifies each time

In every imagined tournament, the top 2 of each group go through, plus the 8 best third-placed teams. That last rule is why a team can still have a chance even after a couple of losses.

4

We count how often your team made it

Your team's number is simply how often it reached the next round across all those playthroughs. 70% means it qualified in about 7 of every 10 imagined tournaments.

GOOD TO KNOW

A percentage isn't a prediction set in stone. A team on 20% still gets through one time in five — and a single result can swing the number a lot. It refreshes the moment a real result comes in. These aren't betting odds; just the maths of what's still possible.

For the curious: each update runs 20,000 simulated tournaments, so the percentages stay steady to about a tenth of a percent.